Because the near future is produced,can release faster, the contradiction of supply and demand that makes early days alleviates somewhat is highlighted from the beginning come out, to price of seamless steel tube rise situation form restrict. Price of seamless steel tube of estimation later period continues hard the eve of the lunar New Year rise, use Cheng Bo run mode power. 1, grand result of indelicate policy method will slowly flash, demand of seamless steel tube is relatively ooth our country economy raised 2025 anticipate guiding principle is 6.5-7.0% . To answer pressure of economic be issued to lower levels, surround go producing can, go inventory, go lever, fall cost and fill the mission of 5 the eve of the lunar New Year such as short steel tube, country came on stage in succession a series of firm raise policy idea. From 1-10 month grand indelicate economy moving environment looks, our country economy connected stop drop a certain state, estate investment and the industry such as mechanical, car, shipbuilding all appear time go firmly situation. Look from near future environment, steely industry is dissolved superfluous produce can implement plan already protocol ends, understood each district region of 935 timeses overall place, protocol the yield that distributes year can be pressed decrease or quit a plan, dissolve superfluous produce can work will comprehensive enter carry out hair of level; country formally to change appoint, of print and distribute of union of the Ministry of Communication " radical move measure weighs traffic project of the eve of the lunar New Year props up 3 years walking plans " point out, 2025-2018 year advance the focal point project of traffic of orbit of railroad, highway, canalage, airport, city 303, involve a project to always invest about 4.7 trillion yuan. Accordingly grand flash of result of indelicate policy method, demand of later period seamless steel tube is relatively ooth. 2, produce can release quickly, will right of price of seamless steel tube pick up happen restrain penitentiary follow the eve of the lunar New Year of price of seamless steel tube rise, 3, steely October enterprise answer produce, enlarge produces strength to add the eve of the lunar New Year. According to data of country statistic bureau, crop of countrywide crude steel was 69.42 million tons October, increase 0.5%; average day to produce crude steel compared to the same period 2.314 million tons, achieve historical records top rate. Occupy data of custom wall bulletin additionally, the whole nation exported rolled steel October 9.08 million tons, import rolled steel 1.1 million tons, crude steel of amount to of only outlet steel products 8.28 million tons, annulus comparing cuts down supply of crude steel of home of month of 760 thousand tons of;10 to measure 61.14 million tons, count dispute by calendar day, increase than March 2.5% , increase than 1-2 month 17.2% . Steely crop is climbed adroitly litre, will make home market supply and demand contradictory aggravate, go to price of later period seamless steel tube situation happen restrain penitentiary. 3, iron ore light material price fall after a rise formerly, prop up to price of seamless steel tube penitentiary weaken follow the eve of the lunar New Year of price of early days seamless steel tube climb litre, light material price to also be shown formerly relatively move rise situation. But enter fall after a rise appeared to go since October situation. According to monitoring, to in October the 2nd week, price of homebred iron concentrate is 512 yuan / ton, annulus drops than last week 8 yuan / ton, fall abandoning standard of seamless steel tube for 1.56%; is to last two weeks drop, fall reach 1416 yuan / ton, than October end drops 186 yuan / ton, fall come for 11.61%; on October 13, CIOPI imports iron ore (powdery mine) average price is 53.5 dollars / ton, than October end drops 10.51 dollars / ton, fall for 16.42% . Price of refine alloy canal is concatenate and stable. Principal light material price to drop formerly, prop up to price of seamless steel tube penitentiary weaken somewhat. 4, company capital is serious circumstance ostentation and extravagance will still last, the first step that price still is market competition fathers because of bank system accuse dimensions of superfluous industry credit, steely industry financing the contradiction with expensive, serious capital still has no difficult, financing relatively move alleviate. According to Central Bank data, in October end, person popularly remaining sum of close money loan increases compared to the same period 14.4% , end of the month on increasing ratio is low 0.3 percent; that month person popularly close money loan adds 555.6 billion yuan, add 152.3 billion yuan less compared to the same period, the eve of the lunar New Year of the eve of the lunar New Year under go up month of 1.37 trillion degree. Because steely company product is coessential,change a standard taller, falling at the market situation that beg for the eve of the lunar New Year, price competition still is the strongest market competition step. Market of later period seamless steel tube needs to put the first issue of family dependant: It is answer produce a business much, produce can release quickly. The enterprise centers 3-10 month iron and steel answer produce, enlarge is produced, make daily output of countrywide crude steel achieved 2.314 million tons when achieve record October. Iron and steel of estimation later period produces to still can connect higher rate. Changing indelicate circumstance ostentation and extravagance to fall at begging posture to have no for the eve of the lunar New Year, steely crop the eve of the lunar New Year increase aggravate to produce supply and demand is contradictory. Steely enterprise should take seriously elucidate market to transform, crop of the eve of the lunar New Year of not blind enlarge, continue to had been done control job of crop, firm market. 2 it is international trade situation serious, exit difficulty will add the eve of the lunar New Year. Follow rolled steel to export the addition of the quantity, our country and foreign trade controversial issue are added gradually much, first quarter already accumulative total happens 16 cases. The near future, the United States mentions to sectional home steely company 337 entry inquiry is visited, the European Union also rejects to approve status of Chinese market economy. Estimation later period is Euramerican reach method of shelter of trade of southeast Asia nation to return can further increase, rolled steel exports difficulty to add the eve of the lunar New Year somewhat, export amplitude general somewhat fall after a rise. 3 it is iron ore market still is in offer the eve of the lunar New Year at seeking a state, iron ore price hard the eve of the lunar New Year rise. Accumulative total of 1-10 month whole nation imports iron ore three hundred and twenty-five million four hundred and forty thousand tons, increase 6.1%;10 month whole nation to import iron ore compared to the same period (custom) money is average C.I.F 52.57 dollars / ton, annulus comparing rises 16.1% , continuously the 2nd month rises stocks of port of iron ore of entrance of;10 month end is one hundred million and eighty thousand tons, annulus comparing rises 3.9% . Iron ore market still is in for the eve of the lunar New Year at seeking a state, iron ore price hard the eve of the lunar New Year rise. The place on put together narrates: Accordingly firm increase, go producing can policy method comes on stage in succession, suffer the market to anticipate strengthen continuously, demand annulus compares rolled steel to rise somewhat, rolled steel stock is all move wait for identity influence, price of domestic seamless steel tube continues to rise, and go up relatively move add the eve of the lunar New Year. Follow the eve of the lunar New Year of seamless steel tube rise, iron and steel is produced can release quickly, seamless steel tube presents fall after a rise to go situation. Price of market of seamless steel tube of estimation later period will show wave motion to move situation.
